The three most popular factors cause the slowdown

2022-07-27
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According to the data provided by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the apparent consumption of refined oil in China increased by 12.7% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, of which the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel increased by 5.2% and 16.2% year-on-year respectively. With the change of the overall trend of China's economy, the pace of China's refined oil demand growth will gradually slow down in the later period

zhouxiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of CIC, said that the overall trend of China's economy has a significant impact on the consumption of refined oil. In the first half of the year, China's economic recovery momentum was strong, and the consumption of refined oil grew rapidly. Since the second half of the year, the pace of China's economic growth has slowed down, and the demand for refined oil has also declined. In July, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 53.3, up 0.1 point from the previous month. However, the production index, new export order index and purchase volume index increased slightly, indicating that the growth in the later period is still weak

according to the data released by the automobile industry, China's automobile sales volume in July was 1056200, down 6.7% month on month. In addition, with the introduction of subsidy policies for energy-saving vehicles in various regions, the stimulating effect is beginning to show. Energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles have had a certain impact on the sales of traditional fuel vehicles, affecting the sales of traditional fuel vehicles. In addition, dealers are facing greater inventory pressure and the arrival of the off-season of automobile sales in August, the automobile sales market in August will continue to weaken, thus affecting the consumption of refined oil in the later period

on the other hand, China has entered a critical period of energy conservation and emission reduction. The state has begun to take strict measures to limit the energy consumption of high energy consuming industries. On the 8th, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the list of 2087 enterprises in 18 industries that we had a good talk in Nanjing to eliminate backward production capacity, requiring these enterprises to shut down before the end of September this year, which will directly lead to a decline in domestic diesel demand in the second half of the year, Reduce the growth rate of domestic refined oil consumption

the investment analysis and prospect forecast report on China's manufacturing and operation as a whole product oil market in issued by CIC consultants pointed out that the autumn harvest is a small climax of China's diesel consumption, which will promote the growth of product oil consumption to a certain extent. However, the time of such centralized consumption is also relatively short, and its role in stimulating the growth of refined oil consumption is limited

"the recent upsurge in international crude oil prices is bound to be transmitted to the domestic product oil prices," said ZhangYanlin, research director of CIC consulting. "Moreover, the continued high crude oil prices will likely become the overall trend of oil prices in the second half of the year. The high oil prices will certainly restrain the domestic product oil consumption, resulting in a 1.33% drop in the final domestic product revenue and a slowdown in the growth of oil demand."

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